"Is My Crown Better than Your Euro? Exchange Rates and Public Opinion on the European Single Currency"

The No to the euro in referendums in Denmark and Sweden has been characterized as a public rebellion against an elite project and a sign of a general Euroscepticism among the citizens. However, it is often ignored that support for the euro fluctuates significantly over time in these countries, and hence analysing referendum outcomes simply in terms on static factors will provide only part of the explanation. In contrast to existing studies, this paper provides an analysis of the short-term dynamics in public support for the euro in the period leading up to the referendums. We thus address the question of why public attitudes towards monetary integration vary over time. We argue that at least part of the answer can be found in exchange rate fluctuations. Existing studies have neglected the fact that the national currency is not only a purely monetary indicator, but also carries symbolic weight. The public is therefore less likely to surrender their national currency when it is strong than when it is weak. They are also less willing to accept a replacement currency (e.g. the euro) when it is seen as weak vis-à-vis other world currencies. Our analysis of the two euro campaigns lends credence to our proposition that exchange rates matter. Moreover, we test impact of exchange rate changes on support of the euro using time series analysis. We find that the rapid fall in the value of the euro vis-à-vis the dollar contributed to the Danish rejection of the euro, whereas the strength of the Swedish currency made the Swedes more reluctant to relinquish their crown

A tale of two peoples: motivated reasoning in the aftermath of the Brexit Vote

Partisanship is a powerful driver of economic perceptions. Yet we know less about whether other political divisions may lead to similar evaluative biases. In this article, we explore how the salient divide between ‘Remainers’ and ‘Leavers’ in the UK in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum has given rise to biased economic perceptions. In line with the cognitive dissonance framework, we argue that salient non-partisan divisions can change economic perceptions by triggering processes of self- and in-group justification. Using both nationally-representative observational and experimental survey data, we demonstrate that the perceptions of the economy are shaped by the Brexit divide, and that these biases are exacerbated when respondents are reminded of Brexit. These findings indicate that perceptual biases are not always rooted in partisanship, but can be triggered by other political divisions

When who and how matter: explaining the success of referendums in Europe

This article aims to identify the institutional factors that make a referendum successful. This comparative analysis seeks to explain the success of top-down referendums organized in Europe between 2001 and 2013. It argues and tests for the main effect of three institutional factors (popularity of the initiator, size of parliamentary majority, and political cues during referendum campaigns) and controls for the type of referendum and voter turnout. The analysis uses data collected from referendums and electoral databases, public opinion surveys, and newspaper articles. Results show that referendums proposed by a large parliamentary majority or with clear messages from political parties during campaign are likely to be successful

Framing Effects in Referendums on European Integration: Experimental Evidence

Direct democracy played no role in the early stages of the European integration process, but has become an increasingly important way of making decisions on important European issues. The outcome of this public consultation has occasionally both surprised and dismayed national and European political elites; most recently after French, Dutch and Irish voters rejected the attempts of constitutional reform of the European Union. Yet, elites also have considerable influence on how voters decide in referendums. This paper examines one aspect of elite influence in direct democracy, namely how different ‘frames’ affect individual vote choices in referendums on European integration. Framing effects occur when people’s responses to an issue depend on how it is portrayed. This paper relies on survey experiments to examine two types of framing effects in (hypothetical) EU referendums. First, it explores the influence of party endorsements on partisan and non‐partisan voters. Second, it examines the effect of describing different consequences of voting yes or no on vote choices. This experimental evidence contributes to the existing literature on EU referendums by exploring how voters respond to elite recommendations and how the framing of the context influences the choice between two options

"Candidate Quality in European Parliament Elections"

European Parliament (EP) elections are characterized by low turnout and defection from governing parties to smaller parties. The most common explanation for this is that European elections are ‘second order national elections’, which voters use to either punish the government or simply abstain. However, so far the literature has not considered whether the quality of the candidates in EP elections is a contributing factor to these patterns of voting. In this paper, we examine whether low levels of turnout and defection from governing parties are influenced by the quality of candidates elected to the EP. We use a unique dataset on the background of each of the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from 1979 to 2006 to examine the determinants cross-national and cross-party variation in candidate experience and prominence, as well as the effect on turnout and electoral fortunes of parties. Finally, we examine whether the quality of candidates provides a good indicator of their activities in the Parliament. We find systematic differences in candidate quality across the member states. Higher candidate quality increases turnout and contributes to the electoral success of parties in EP elections. The drawback seems to be that the qualities that make candidates stand out in EP election campaigns make for inactive committee members

The second-order election model revisited: an experimental test of vote choices in European Parliament elections

This paper examines the micro-foundations of the second-order elections model of European Parliament (EP) elections. We extend the existing literature in several ways. First, we propose an individual-level model of voting behaviour in second-order elections. Second, we present the first study using experimental methods to test the predictions of the second-order model, allowing us to test the individual-level propositions about vote choice in a controlled environment. Importantly, we also examine the conditioning effect of information on the ‘second-order’ nature of voting behaviour in EP elections. Our findings show that while voters base their EP vote choices primarily on domestic preferences, those who are given additional information about the European integration dimension are also more likely to vote on this basis